Dan Mitchell: Simply stated, the folks who oppose fixing entitlements – including so-called national conservatives and politicians such as Donald Trump– are in favor of giant tax increases on lower-income and middle-class Americans!

——

Big-Spending Republicans Are Big-Taxing Republicans

My Fifteenth Theorem of Government points out there is an “unavoidable choice” between entitlement reform and tax policy.

Simply stated, the folks who oppose fixing entitlements – including so-called national conservatives and politicians such as Donald Trump– are in favor of giant tax increases on lower-income and middle-class Americans.

They don’t admit their support for huge tax hikes on regular people, of course, but that’s the inevitable outcome if fiscal policy is left on autopilot. Even Paul Krugman admits that’s what will happen.

This process already is underway in the United Kingdom.

The Conservative Party became recklessly profligateunder Boris Johnson, causing a big bump in the country’s (already excessive) spending trajectory.

And bad spending policy is now leading to bad tax policy (the British pound no longer is the world’s reserve currency, so there’s not as much ability to finance ever-expanding spending by endlessly issuing new debt).

As explained in a Wall Street Journal editorial from last November, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt have a tax agenda somewhat akin to Joe Biden’s.

The Chancellor and his boss, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, are making a particular tax grab at highly mobile workers, especially in financial services, by reducing the threshold for the top 45% income-tax rate to £125,000 from £150,000. The Treasury pretends this will rake in an additional £3.8 billion in revenue over six years…Mr. Hunt is increasing the top corporate tax rate to 25% from 19% and imposing a global minimum tax not even the European Union has managed to implement. …Mr. Sunak’s Conservative Party ditched Ms. Truss’s supply-side tax and regulatory reforms in favor of this plan to tax and spend Britain to prosperity. One of those strategies boasts a proven track record of success and the other has a history of failure. The Tories can explain their choice to voters at the next election.

In a column for CapX, Conor Holohan made similar points, while also pointing out the corporate tax hike won’t raise nearly as much money and Sunak and Hunt are hoping to collect.

Hunt is right to want to balance the books and avoid passing on huge levels of debt to future generations. But to raise corporation tax on such a scale risks turning away those businesses which will be central to the growth and investment we need to generate the receipts that will pay the nation’s bills…. But that static approach doesn’t..reflect the fact that businesses are being discouraged from investing in Britain because of the planned increase in corporation tax. …The TaxPayers’ Alliance (TPA) dynamic tax model..suggests the planned corporation tax rise could cost £30.2bn of lost GDP after a decade. This slower growth would see almost two thirds of the expected revenue from the rise to be lost through lower receipts. …By raising corporation tax on this scale, the Government will be eroding that tax base, and we will see more companies like AstraZeneca deciding that there are more competitive places to be investing.

Steve Entin of the Tax Foundation also did some economic analysis and is not impressed with the Sunak-Hunt tax-and-spend agenda.

…the Sunak-Hunt tax plan will raise labor costs and reduce hours worked. It will increase tax hurdles for new corporate investment, discouraging capital formation. With less labor and capital, real output and employment will fall, increasing the economic pain… The system phases out the untaxed personal allowance for incomes between £100,000 and £125,140, at a rate of £1 for every £2 of income over £100,000.This results in a de facto 60 percent tax band in the middle of the 40 percent band. …The Sunak-Hunt plan…leaves the pending rise in the corporation tax in place. It raises the windfall profits tax on oil and gas producers and imposes a new tax on electricity generation, which will drive up the cost of energy, prompting the government to promise more spending on energy grants to consumers. …The Sunak-Hunt tax plan…estimates another 6 million workers will be pushed onto the tax roles due to the freezes. …History is clear. Lowering budget deficits via spending restraint frees resources for additional private output and jobs. …It is folly to think deficit reduction by means of a corporation tax increase would lower interest rates enough to spur investment despite the direct damage from the tax

Let’s close with a few passages from another Wall Street Journal editorial, this one published just yesterday.

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised economic expertise… British businesses think he needs a refresher. Witness the brewing revolt against the mammoth tax increases Mr. Sunak cooked up with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. …they want to raise the top corporate tax rate to 25% from 19%; reduce the threshold for the top 45% personal income-tax rate to £125,140 from £150,000; and soak the middle class by freezing tax brackets…The ruling Conservatives have convinced themselves that only a balanced budget can induce businesses to invest in Britain. But…James Dyson of vacuum cleaner fame wrote in the Telegraph in January that the Tory policy of tax hikes and overregulation is “short-sighted” and “stupid.” …Pharma giant AstraZeneca last month said it will build a £320 million factory in low-tax Ireland instead of the U.K. “because the [U.K.] tax rate was discouraging.” Shell is reevaluating $25 billion in oil and gas investments after Mr. Hunt cranked up a windfall-profits tax on top of the regular corporate rate. …The business revolt is a warning that the taxes will be fiscal duds. …That may leave the Tories defending a record of slow growth, high taxes and more deficits and debt at the next election. A party of the right that loses its low-tax, pro-growth economic credibility is headed for defeat.

Some readers may not care about fiscal policy in the United Kingdom.

But today’s column is a warning sign about what will happen in the United States if Republicans surrenderon spending and entitlement programs are left on autopilot.

I won’t pretend that genuine entitlement reform will be politically easy. But my message to my Republicans friends is that a tax-increase agenda is not just economically destructive, but also politically suicidal.

A GOP that strays from Reagan-style classical liberalism is bad news.

———-

The Most Laughable Tweet of 2022

I’ve shared some notable tweets this year.

Today, we’re going to expand on this list with the “most laughable” tweet of 2022. But this tweet from the Republican National Committee is a case of accidental humor rather than deliberate humor.

As you might expect, the RNC did not bother trying to prove its statement.

That’s because the Republican party generally does a terrible job. Donald Trump expanded government. George W. Bush expanded government. And George H.W. Bush expanded government.

You have to go all the way back to Ronald Reagan to find a Republican who actually was on the side of taxpayers (and before him, you have to go all the way back to Coolidge).

Indeed, Republicans usually wind up expanding government faster than Democrats.

And that’s not because of the defense budget. Even when looking at just domestic spending, Republicans (other than Reagan) have a worse track record.

I have to wonder whether the folks at the RNC were doing hallucinogenic drugs when they sent out that tweet? Or was it a naive intern who heard a few speeches and was tricked into thinking the GOP actually cared about shrinking government.

The latter possibility is a good excuse to share this cartoon.

But let’s also look at some serious analysis.

Here are some excerpts from a column in the Wall Street Journal by Kimberley Strassel. She was motivated by a pork-filled handout to the tech industry this past summer, but then proceeded to list many other sins.

The GOP that is assisting in this quarter-trillion-dollar spendathon is the same GOP that last year provided the votes for a $1 trillion infrastructure boondoggle. The same GOP that in 2020 signed on to not one, not two, three or four, but five Covid “relief” bills, to the tune of some $3.5 trillion. The same GOP that…blew through discretionary spending caps. The same GOP that has unofficially re-embraced earmarks. The party occasionally takes a breather—say to gripe about the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion Covid bill in 2021—but then it’s right back to the spending grindstone. When was the last time anyone heard a Republican talk about the need to reform Social Security or Medicare? That disappeared with the election of Donald Trump (opposed to both)… Instead, a growing faction of the party sees a future in buying the votes of working- and middle-class voters with costly new entitlement proposals of their own, such as expanded child tax credits.

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

But since laughing is more fun, here’s a cartoon about earmarks (which recently were endorsed by Republican lawmakers).

I’ll close with a tiny bit of optimism.

I’ve dealt with hundreds of politicians over the years, most of whom were Republicans.

By and large, they usually understand that big government is bad for prosperity. But there are two things that have an impact on their voting behavior.

  1. They are afraid of being rejected by voters who want freebies (especially the ones they already are receiving).
  2. But they might be willing to cast courageous votes if there is a real chance of a long-run change in policy.

To elaborate on the second point, there have been three periods of spending restraint in my lifetime: 1) the Reagan years, 2) the Clinton years, and 3) the Tea Party years.

In all three cases, there was a critical mass of lawmakers who were willing to do the right thing in spite of the usual incentives in Washington to do the wrong thing.

Is there a 4th period in our future? That depends on whether the GOP returns to Reaganism.

————

A.F. Branco for Oct 21, 2021

December 22, 2022

The Honorable t John Thune of Soth Dakota
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator John Thune,

The federal government debt is growing so much that it is endangering us because if things keep going like they are now we will not have any money left for the national defense because we are so far in debt as a nation.

We have been spending so much on our welfare state through food stamps and other programs that I am worrying that many of our citizens are becoming more dependent on government and in many cases they are losing their incentive to work hard because of the welfare trap the government has put in place. 

Other nations in Europe have gone down this road and we see what mess this has gotten them in. People really are losing their faith in big government and they want more liberty back.

It seems to me we have to get back to the founding  principles that made our country great.  We also need to realize that a big government will encourage waste and corruptionThe recent scandals in our government have proved my point.

We got to stop spending so much money and start paying off our national debt or the future of our children and grandchildren will be very sad indeed. Everyone knows that entitlement spending must be cut but it seems we are not brave enough to do it.

TRUE CONSERVATIVES are not the problem because they voted AGAINST THE OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL THAT DEMOCRATS AND RINO REPUBLICANS LIKE YOU IN THE SENATE HAVE VOTED FOR!!! Why did you betray your conservative supporters back home?


Kennedy votes against $1.7 trillion omnibus package

Dec 22 2022

Watch Kennedy’s statement here.

WASHINGTON – Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) released the above statement after voting against the $1.7 trillion government appropriations package.

Key excerpts from the senator’s statement are below:

“Here’s the main reason I voted against the budget: Inflation. As I’ve said before, inflation is ravaging the American Dream. It’s a cancer on the American Dream, and we’re not going to get control of it until Congress stops spending so much money.”

“We’ve got to slow the rate of growth of spending and debt. Now, look, I’m not naive. There are many people here in Washington, not just on the Democratic side—there are many big-government Republicans as well—and their attitude is, ‘We can’t possibly spend enough money.’ If they ran out of money to spend and couldn’t borrow any more, they would think about taking out a reverse mortgage on Alaska to get the money. But there are enough Republicans on Capitol Hill for us to be able to slow the rate of growth and spending, and this bill didn’t do that.”

“The question becomes . . . What’s the best way to achieve the best budget? Do we sit down and do it now, or do we wait until we have a majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives? And I said all along, we should wait.” 

“Here’s what it comes down to: Would you rather have Nancy Pelosi decide what the federal budget is going to be, or would you rather wait until he’s sworn in as Speaker of the House and have Kevin McCarthy? And that, to me, is a no brainer, and there was never any doubt in my mind that the prudent decision, in terms of controlling spending, was to wait for Kevin McCarthy [instead of] allowing Speaker Pelosi to make the decision.”



Sincerely,

Everette Hatcher, everettehatcher@gmail.Com, cell 501-920-5733, http://www.thedailyhatch.org, PS:PLEASE RETURN TO YOUR CONSERVATIVE ROOTS!!!! I have always been a big fan of yours in the past!


—-

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Some Tea Party heroes (Part 8)

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Some Tea Party heroes (Part 4)

June 4, 2012 – 7:19 am

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Some Tea Party heroes (Part 3)

May 25, 2012 – 11:46 am

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