An open letter to President Obama (Part 63)

Rep Michael Burgess response

Uploaded by on Jan 25, 2012

This week Dr. Burgess provides an update from Washington and responds to President Obama’s State of the Union address.

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President Obama c/o The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President,

I know that you receive 20,000 letters a day and that you actually read 10 of them every day. I really do respect you for trying to get a pulse on what is going on out here.

Here is an excellent piece from the Heritage Foundation with a reaction to the president’s proposed budget:

Obama’s Budget Sings a Golden Oldie: “Do You Believe in Magic?”– J.D. Foster Imagine if every President magically got an extra year. Budgets are always full of contestable assumptions and assertions, and President Obama’s fiscal year 2013 budget is no exception. But few budgets get an extra year—certainly none in recent memory, until now. It’s not that President Obama’s budget assumes his first term will last five years instead of four, or that a second term would last an extra year. But there is an extra year in the budget. It shows up in the economic assumptions, specifically, his assumptions for economic growth. Every budget rests on two basic pillars: the President’s policy proposals in conjunction with current law, and the economic assumptions that drive tax receipts and much of federal spending. A President can be forgiven a little optimism in formulating these economic assumptions, as every Administration believes its policies would produce a stronger economy. And, after all, these economic forecasts, while painstakingly developed, are nevertheless little more than SWAGs, which is budget speak for Silly, Wild-A** Guesses. Even so, ever since the humorous debates about rosey-scenario forecasts dating back to the 1980s, a budget’s economic forecasts rarely diverge substantially from the conventional wisdom as evidenced by the Blue Chip forecast, essentially an average of selected private-sector forecasters. It’s not that the Blue Chip forecast is more likely than any other to be right, but at least it does reflect something of a safe, prudent consensus. The January Blue Chip forecast as reported in the budget has growth in real output in 2012 of 2.2 percent, which agrees with the Congressional Budget Office forecast. The Administration shows a substantially higher forecast of 2.7 percent. That’s a big difference for the most important year—the current year. A pattern of the Administration projecting substantially stronger growth continues in the forecasts for every year up until 2017—what would be the end of President Obama’s second term if re-elected, when at last the Administration’s forecast returns to earth. The net effect of these uber-strong annual economic growth forecasts is that from 2012 to 2017, the Administration projects a whopping 3.9 percent more cumulative growth than does the Blue Chip forecast. In economic terms, that’s like adding an extra year of growth—an extra very good year of growth. And the effect of this irrational economic forecasting exuberance on the deficit in 2017? The budget tells us that, too, in a sensitivity table (3-1). According to the President’s own budget, the deficit in 2016 would jump by about $195 billion, from $649 billion to about $844 billion, if they used the more conservative Blue Chip forecast. If only we could count on this magical economic year of growth, maybe we could wish our fiscal troubles away. As the Lovin’ Spoonful sang it: “Do you believe in magic?”

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I don’t know much about projections and the assumptions they are based on. However, I do know that it is impossible to claim that this budget proposal cuts anything when in fact it adds 8 trillion to the deficit in coming years.

Thank you so much for your time. I know how valuable it is. I also appreciate the fine family that you have and your committment as a father and a husband.

Sincerely,

Everette Hatcher III, 13900 Cottontail Lane, Alexander, AR 72002, ph 501-920-5733, lowcostsqueegees@yahoo.com

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