Obama’s re-election chances helped by Osama being brought to justice? Timing is everything!!!

George H.W.Bush’s Gulf War was very successful, nevertheless, it could not lead him to a re-election.


Bill Clinton’s success in 1992 election attempt was brought on in part to the public’s forgetfulness.

The chances of President Obama’s re-election have to improved since the events of yesterday. Last night people were singing in the streets. In fact, I just watched a video clip on the Tolbert Report website showing people shouting “USA,USA” outside the Whitehouse. However, it is my view that 18 months is too long for people to remember.   First lets take a look at the typical reaction of the press today which is almost crown him already the winner in 2012. This is especially true of bloggers today. Mike Dorning does a good job of giving a good overview of the latest events.

Mike Dorning in his article “Death of Bin Laden May Strengthen Obama’s Hand in Policy Debates,” Bloomberg, May 2, 2011 noted:

The long-awaited retribution against al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden for the Sept. 11 attacks likely will strengthen President Barack Obama’s hand in pursuing both his foreign policy and domestic goals.

Six days after the terrorist attacks in 2001, President George W. Bush declared bin Laden was “Wanted: Dead or Alive,” Nearly 10 years later, after the bearded terrorist eluded capture when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and continued to taunt the nation with videotaped statements, Obama last night announced: “Justice has been done.”

Rivals and allies alike offered congratulations to the administration for the U.S. raid that killed bin Laden yesterday in Pakistan.

Bush, Obama’s Republican predecessor, called the mission “a momentous success” and “a victory for America.”

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, one of the Republicans who may run against him next year, included Obama among those deserving credit, offering “congratulations to our intelligence community, our military and the president.”

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, another Republican weighing a presidential bid, also congratulated Obama and the military for ’’a job well done.’’

The timing of bin Laden’s death strengthens Obama’s standing as he begins negotiations with congressional Republicans on a long-term deficit reduction package and on legislation to raise the national debt ceiling. He is scheduled to have a dinner with bipartisan congressional leaders at the White House tonight and Vice President Joe Biden opens budget negotiations on May 5.

Counterweight to Criticism

For Obama — who last week released his birth certificate to quiet critics who questioned his eligibility to be president and who, as a candidate, fended off false rumors that he was a Muslim — his role in ordering the operation and announcing its successful completion now provides a counterweight to criticism of his foreign policy, particularly his use of U.S. power.

Rick Nelson, director of the homeland security and counterterrorism program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the death of bin Laden won’t immediately change the tactical battle against terrorism because, at the time of his death, the al-Qaeda leader wasn’t delivering operational orders to the group’s affiliates.

“Its ultimate significance will be on a strategic-symbolic level,” Nelson said. “It’s incumbent on the Obama administration to seize on this moment, especially amid the popular uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa.”

Something to Celebrate

The killing of the man who had come to embody the global terrorist threat now provides a victory to celebrate for a public soured by a slow economic recovery, high gasoline prices and dissatisfaction with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In a CBS/New York Times poll completed April 20, 70 percent of Americans said the country is on the wrong track, the worst reading in more than two years. Perceptions about the country’s direction historically have been among the factors predicting an incumbent president’s re-election prospects.

As news of bin Laden’s death spread, crowds gathered outside the White House and at the “Ground Zero” site of the attack on the World Trade Center in Manhattan to cheer, shout “USA” and wave American flags. Shortly before Obama addressed the nation, the crowd outside the White House began singing “The Star Spangled Banner,” the national anthem.

Matthew Murray, 24, of Arlington, Virginia, stood in front of the White House waving an American flag. Dressed in shorts, sneakers and a t-shirt, Murray said he ran five miles from his home to join the crowd.

‘Spontaneous Outpouring’

“It’s a struggle we’ve spent years working on, and it’s finally over,” Murray said. “I’ve never seen a spontaneous outpouring of joy like this.”

The mood extended to markets. U.S. stock-index futures and Asian shares jumped and crude oil dropped as Obama made the announcement.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in June climbed 0.6 percent to 1,367.6 at 6:11 a.m. in New York. The benchmark measure of U.S. shares closed last week at the highest level since June 2008. Oil for June delivery was down $2.25 at $111.38 a barrel after declining as much as $3.11 to $110.82 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Obama used his television address to shift the ground to themes of national unity and optimism that were pillars of his 2008 election campaign. He asked the country to “think back to the sense of unity that prevailed on 9/11.”

He also said that, while the task of securing the nation against terrorism isn’t finished, “we are once again reminded that America can do whatever we set our mind to.”


In his article “The war that made Bill Clinton President:Remember when every major Democrat in America was scared to run against George H.W.Bush? “ Jan 23, 2011, Salon, Steve Kornacki writes:

The war that made Bill Clinton president

George H.W. Bush prepares to give his Jan. 16, 1991, Oval Office speech announcing the beginning of military action in Iraq (left); and Bill Clinton on the campaign trail in 1992.

The Gulf War that began 20 years ago this past week ended with America’s political class in nearly universal agreement on one point: The Democrats were screwed in 1992.

In the months before the war, as he’d dispatched hundreds of thousands of troops to the Persian Gulf in response to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, there had been widespread fear among Americans that President George H.W. Bush was leading them into another Vietnam. But as wars go, Operation Desert Storm proved surprisingly tidy: The verdict was quick and decisive and American casualties were low. It was everything Vietnam hadn’t been, and when Bush declared a cease-fire on Feb. 28, a months-long national celebration ensued, complete with parades, prime-time television specials — and, of course, soaring popularity for the commander in chief, whose leadership was hailed by even his harshest critics.

It was in this climate that Bush, his approval ratings edging over 90 percent in some polls, was branded a shoo-in for reelection in ’92. Sure, he’d gone back on his “no new taxes” pledge the year before, and yes, the economy was clearly in recession, but none of this mattered anymore: Even Harry Truman after the Japanese surrender hadn’t enjoyed Bush’s standing with his fellow countrymen, and it was simply inconceivable that they might turn around and give him the boot 20 months later — especially when almost every Democrat being mentioned as a potential candidate had been against the war. One poll matched Bush against the man widely considered the Democrats’ best bet for ’92, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, in a trial heat: Bush came out on top … by 62 points.

“Large problems and small bedevil the Democrats,” the Washington Post’s Mary McGrory wrote in mid-March. “They are fairly resigned to the idea that the 1992 presidential election was decided during Operation Desert Storm, and they realize they may not get the sand out of their shoes until Thanksgiving, if then.”

There was one Democrat, though, who was interested in running for president for whom all of this was good news — very good news. Forty-five-year-old Bill Clinton had just been reelected the previous fall to his fifth term as Arkansas’ governor. But his barely concealed national ambitions — he’d walked to the starting line for the 1988 presidential race before backing out and citing family concerns — had been a liability in that campaign, and Clinton had responded by promising Arkansans not to seek the White House if they returned him to the statehouse. By the final days of the race, when it was clear he’d survive, Clinton was already looking for a way to wiggle out of that commitment, but it would be a process. He needed time.

The Gulf War gave him plenty of it. In the previous presidential campaign cycle, Michael Dukakis, Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson, Richard Gephardt, Joe Biden and Bruce Babbitt had all been essentially running full-fledged presidential campaigns by the spring of 1987. But in the spring of 1991, about the only thing to be heard on the Democratic side was crickets. The party’s brightest stars all made it clear that they either weren’t running in ’92, or were in no hurry to decide. They were all intimidated by Bush’s imposing poll numbers, and many of them also wondered if their opposition to what had turned into an immensely popular war would render them unelectable…

Thus, there was room for Clinton to ease his way into the national conversation — to slowly acclimate Arkansans to the idea that he’d go back on his pledge, the better to avoid an embarrassing home state backlash when he finally did jump in. The calculations that were keeping so many big-name Democrats away from the presidential race didn’t really apply to Clinton.

This enabled Clinton get the Democratic Nomination but one of the main reasons he beat President Bush was the Gulf War victory was too far in the past for people to remember.


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