In 2010 the Republicans barely had over 50 candidates running for the 100 state house seats and they won 87% of those races were they had candidates. This year it is very easy for Republicans to get candidates.
The key to predicting the outcome of the 2012 elections is looking at the polls that show that people in Arkansas would rather be associated with Republicans than Democrats. This is the first time in the history of Arkansas that has been true.
Last week on Arkansas Week in Review on PBS, the three pundits said that it is true that Arkansas Democrats have to dig themselves out of a hole because Obama will be on the same ticket in 2012. However, they pointed to the fact that the Republican House in Washington is very unpopular too and the Republicans have to dig themselves out of a hole too.
I have only response to that silly statement. Look at what Arkansas voters did in 2010. They must identify with those “crazy Republicans” in Washington who want to cut spending because they voted to put more of them in office than ever before, electing 75% Republicans in our house delegation to Washington for the first time ever.
With President Obama on the top of the ticket in 2012, I just don’t think that Bill Halter can beat Representative Tim Griffin. Red Arkansas seems to agree with me:
You see, Mr. Halter has caused two looney leftie bloggers to get all ver clempt over the mishegoss that he might unseat Rep. Tim Griffin in 2012.
To wit, we offer the pie in the sky ramblings of the Blue Arkansas Blog:
I don’t see why a strong Democrat couldn’t run a competitive race outside of Pulaski and into Perry, Van Buren, Conway, and even Faulkner. Halter would be that sort of Democrat for sure, and with the kind of fundraising he could manage and grassroots excitement he could generate he would definitely be a major threat to Tim Griffin.
We’d like to offer a slight edit to BAB’s post by changing the phrase “grassroots excitement” to “union-financed smurfturfing.” Furthermore, we’d also like to point out the following 2010 AR-02 election results from “Perry, Van Buren, Conway, and even Faulkner” counties:
We guess Joyce Elliott would not be considered a “strong Democrat” by the BABlers. That’s got to sting a little bit.
Now we move on to the left-headed stepchild at non-content partner Talk Business, former Halter staffer Michael Cook. Mr. Cook writes that “Bill Halter can beat Tim Griffin,” adding:
I’m told by multiple sources, outside of the Halter camp, that recent polling shows Griffin is beatable and weaker than many realize.
Of course, the new go-to liberal blogger for DPA (read: consultant) oppo-dumps and talking points offers no proof to back his claim. (Hey, didn’t he moan about a similar lack of proof recently?)
Mr. Cook also spins a creative story as to how “ticket-splitting is ingrained in our political culture.” He cites the following examples as proof:
In 2004, John Kerry lost the 2nd Congressional District, but Vic Snyder cruised to victory over a well-funded opponent. In 2002, Arkansans voted out Republican U.S. Senator Tim Hutchinson, but re-elected Republican Governor Mike Huckabee. In 2000, Al Gore lost Arkansas, but Mike Ross defeated Republican Congressman Jay Dickey for Congress.
Funny how that, according to Mr. Cook’s view, the only ticket-splitting occurs when Republicans are on the top of the ticket. We’ll put the fact that Mr. Beebe won the Second District 66%-32% while Mr. Griffin won 58%-38% out of our minds then. (BTW, it sure looks to us that there were a few Democrats who dared to stray from Da Guv–no telling what they’d do when Da O is atop the ballot.)
2002: Do we really need to get into Tim Hutchinson’s marital issues and that Mark Pryor traded on his daddy’s name?
2004: Vic Snyder raised $891,220. Marvin Parks raised $576,854. (By comparison, Mr. Griffin raised $1,855,578 in 2010.)
That was fun.
Since Mr. Cook likes to toss out info with nothing sourced, we’d like to follow suit by adding that–according something we heard from some guy–Mr. Halter’s “big donors” indicate that he may take a pass.
We’re not real sure if that is in reference to local donors or if it means Richard Trumka and the AFL-CIO will not be spending another $4.5 million in independent expenditures on behalf of Mr. Halter like they did in 2010.
The Daily Hatch 