LINCOLN is in theaters November 9th, 2012 (Limited) and Nationwide November 16th, 2012.

Steven Spielberg directs two-time Academy Award® winner Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln,” a revealing drama that focuses on the 16th President’s tumultuous final months in office. In a nation divided by war and the strong winds of change, Lincoln pursues a course of action designed to end the war, unite the country and abolish slavery. With the moral courage and fierce determination to succeed, his choices during this critical moment will change the fate of generations to come.

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Television interview of witness who saw Lincoln shot

Several emails from Tennessee fans reached the same conclusion the last two weeks.

“It’s a tough time to be a Vol fan,” they read.

And it’s about to get tougher.

I’m not referring to a schedule that has lightened considerably after a gruesome October. Inner conflict is the issue now. Fans will have to wrangle with the prospect of pulling for or against their favorite team.

Sounds almost blasphemous, doesn’t it? But that’s the reality of a 4-5 season preceded by back-to-back losing seasons for a fan base that for so many years experienced so much better.

In 2001, when Tennessee played at Notre Dame, my wife couldn’t believe what she was hearing. She said she was surrounded by Notre Dame fans who were pulling for their team to lose in hopes that then-coach Bob Davie would be fired.

The fans got what they wanted. Notre Dame lost to the Vols, fired Davie and replaced him with Ty Willingham. Eleven years and two more coaches later, the Irish are in the running for a national championship. So it all worked out, huh?

It’s too soon to tell how things will work out for the Vols, although their recent track record is hardly encouraging.

UT defeated Troy 55-48 Saturday afternoon as the two offenses combined for more than 100 points and more than 1,400 yards. That’s fine

for the Big 12 or the Pac-10. But even in a wildly offensive era, the numbers had to be grating for longtime UT fans sitting in a stadium named after a coach whose 1937 defense held 10 opponents to 47 points.

Tennessee won the game. It’s still in the running for a bowl game and a winning season. And if it wins out — bowl game included — it would have as many as eight victories for the first time in five years. That would signify progress for third-year coach Derek Dooley, who assumed leadership of the program in the worst of times.

But that’s hardly enough for many fans, who no longer can envision better seasons to come. In fact, the defense has become such an eyesore, fans struggle to celebrate the historic passing numbers put up by UT quarterback Tyler Bray or the exploits of wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, who has become one of the most entertaining players ever to juke a defender on Tennessee’s behalf.

If UT loses another game, athletic director Dave Hart would have no choice but to make a coaching change. But at 7-5, there’s doubt.

And that’s why some UT fans will be inwardly pulling for Missouri on Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com. Follow him at http://twitter.com/johnadamskns.

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there’s no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

Michael Barone,The Examiner’s senior political analyst, can be contacted at mbarone@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears Wednesday and Sunday, and his stories and blog posts appear on washingtonexaminer.com.