The Daily Hatch

In his article “Pig Trail Gerrymander refuses to die,” Arkansas News Bureau, March 17, 2011, John Brummett asserts:

Let me try to put this as simply as possible:

—The 4th District across southern Arkansas must pick up territory and people, as must the 1st in eastern Arkansas (which is to say the Democratic areas are declining), while the exploding 3rd District in Northwest Arkansas must give up territory and a little more than 100,000 inhabitants (which is to say the Republican areas are growing).

—Any continuation of the redistricting patterns of recent decades, which is to say any logical adaptation of the status quo, would have the 1st District continuing to spread from its eastern Arkansas base across the northern hills.

—A decade ago the 1st was extended by that pattern all the way to Mountain Home and Baxter County. The natural extension this time would be to move further west and higher up the hill to pick up Harrison and Boone County, now in the 3rd District and famously conservative and Republican.

—The only other natural option would be for the 1st District to pick up White County from the 2nd District of Central Arkansas. Home to Harding University, White County also has gone Republican, as has most of Little Rock’s surrounding and growing suburban area.

—When something is happening naturally, the only way to stop or slow it is to act unnaturally. Thus we behold the Pig Trail Gerrymander, which would rid the 3rd District of population in a way that would save the 1st District from having to pick up Harrison.

——-

I think there are no good alternatives for Democrats because there are 125,000 extra Republicans that are getting moved out of NW Ark and they will make the other districts more Republican.

I also think this effort by the Democrats in Arkansas will become a national story. In the end, I think the Democrats will back down and change their mind about this plan. Probably for the same reasons that Max Brantley thought it was a rumor at first and he totally dismissed it as laughable.