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TolbertReport.com – Sen. Gilbert Baker on Redistricting
New Series on 2012 Congressional Districts Part 2
Max Brantley in his blog post “Redrawing congressional districts Update,” (Arkansas Times Blog, Feb 3, 2011), asserts, “Here’s an idea: Move Jefferson into the 2nd and give Mike Ross Saline County.”
The only problem I think the Democrats will experience with that is Tim Griffin’s Democrat opponent only got 38.2% of the vote. Putting Jefferson County into the 2nd district would all but guarantee Joyce Elliott’s Democrat Nomination again and then she would have to pick up about 25,000 votes to get over the hump. Is that possible? At the same time can a Democrat in the South continue to get elected in the next decade with the loss of Jefferson County?
If Brantley gets his way, we may actually see at some point a switch in both seats but still a 3 to 1 advantage by Republicans. Rolling the dice may give the possibility of 2 and 2 but it may also cause a 4 to 0 sweep by Republicans.
Yesterday I posted this: The 2010 Congressional election proved beyond any shadow of a doubt that both Central Arkansas and North West Arkansas voted in Republican Congressmen with large margins. It seems that 125,000 of these voters from these two districts have to be moved to the other two districts (50,000 to 1st where Republican Rick Crawford won close race and 75,000 to 4th where Democrat Mike Ross won with 57% of the vote).
This is the general problem for Democrats. The state is turning red right before their eyes. I suggest they shove all the Democrats they got into the South and just try to save one district for the Democrats. In 2020 don’t be surprised if the Republicans try to put 55% Republicans in every district and then the Democrats will be wishing they had tried to hold on to at least one seat a little longer.
The Daily Hatch 