Tag Archives: state democrats

Mike Ross mostly likely to be replaced by a Republcian

Red Arkansas Blog noted:

New Movement in #AR4 Race Ratings

July 25, 2011

By

As you know, we here at Red Arkansas Blog have been keeping tabs on the prognosticators’ ratings for Arkansas’ Congressional seats heading towards the 2012 election.

In Arkansas’ Fourth District, the word has been that Mr. Ross would be the likely winner in 2012.

That is of course, before today’s announcement.

Here is a recap of the ratings going in to today:

AR-04:

Cook Political Report 7/21 Likely D
Rothenberg Political Report 7/18 Favored D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball 7/14 Likely D
Cook Political Report 7/14 Likely D
Cook Political Report 7/5 Likely D
Cook Political Report 6/30 Likely D
Rothenberg Political Report 6/20 Favored D
Cook Political Report 6/20 Likely D
Roll Call 6/2 Likely D
Rothenberg Political Report 5/12 Favored D

We’re thinking the best-case turnout for Democrats would be that the immediate change for the race would be to “Toss Up.” We here at RAB think it may very well become a “Lean R” seat by the end of the day.

UPDATE

The Cook Political Report is the first one out of the shoot, and it isn’t good for Democrats.

AR-04 has moved from Likely Democrat to Lean Republican.

Per Cook:

While the field in AR-04 will not emerge for several months, southern Arkansas is the last place Democrats want to defend an open seat with President Obama atop their ballot.

(snip)

Many Democrats will be livid at the news of Ross’s exit: in April, state Democrats passed a redistricting plan that stretched Ross’s district into northwest Arkansas, making it two points more Republican under the assumption that Ross would use it as a springboard to campaign in the fastest-growing region of the state. Now that Ross won’t be running next year, Democrats’ task of keeping the open seat is even harder than it would have been before redistricting.

UPDATE II:

Per Roll Call: AR-04 has moved from Likely Democrat to Lean Republican.

UPDATE III:

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: AR-04 has moved from Likely Democrat to Lean Republican.

UPDATE IV:

Rothenberg Political Report: AR-04 has moved from Democrat Favored to Lean Republican

____________________________

There are some Democrats out there that see an opportunity for a Republican pick up here.John Brummett in his article “Ross is running, but I repeat myself,” Arkansas News Bureau, July 26, 2011 noted:

To win, a Democrat will need to be as good a politician as Ross. I can’t identify such a Democrat at present.

At this point I’d give tea party pageanteer Beth Anne Rankin, the Sarah Palin wannabe of Arkansas, a decent shot.

 

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