Jason Tolbert and Michael Cook comment on politics in Arkansas
If you read Michael Cook today then you would think that the Republicans are in big trouble in Arkansas. It is true that some are thinking about throwing their hat in the ring against Rick Crawford, but I think he will defeat all comers. (Max Brantley has also pointed out that the Democrats have chosen to target this seat by running advertisements against Crawford.)
In 2010 the Republicans barely had over 50 candidates running for the 100 state house seats and they won 87% of those races were they had candidates. This year it is very easy for Republicans to get candidates.
The key to predicting the outcome of the 2012 elections is looking at the polls that show that people in Arkansas would rather be associated with Republicans than Democrats. This is the first time in the history of Arkansas that has been true.
Last week on Arkansas Week in Review on PBS, the three pundits said that it is true that Arkansas Democrats have to dig themselves out of a hole because Obama will be on the same ticket in 2012. However, they pointed to the fact that the Republican House in Washington is very unpopular too and the Republicans have to dig themselves out of a hole too.
I have only response to that silly statement. Look at what Arkansas voters did in 2010. They must identify with those “crazy Republicans” in Washington who want to cut spending because they voted to put more of them in office than ever before, electing 75% Republicans in our house delegation to Washington for the first time ever.