I came on here on Friday and predicted that Romney would win 301 to 237. My view was skewed by something I read on Jason Tolbert’s blog recently:
Our neighbors in Tennessee started casting ballots this week. Jim Geraghty with National Review notes a dramatic swing in what looks like good news for Republicans.
While Tennessee is not competitive in 2012, these results show a complete shift in voter enthusiasm from 2008 to 2012. Total voter turnout statewide on day one of early voting was up about 10 percent compared to four years ago, but voter turnout increased 31 percent in McCain counties while it dropped 30 percent in Obama counties.
Here is the view from John Brummett of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette on Oct 21, 2012:
Here’s how I score it today: Romney will win Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
That’s 235 electoral votes, 35 short.
Of the six states truly in play—Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia—Romney probably will win Colorado with nine electoral votes. Let’s go ahead and give him Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, and New Hampshire, with four, though I’m not at all sure of either.
That brings him to 261 electors, nine short.
Let’s give him one more elector for a congressional-district victory in Maine, putting him at 262, eight short.
Obama will win California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
That’s 247 electoral votes, 23 short.
Of those six truly swing states, heavy Democratic early voting in Ohio and Iowa ought to deliver those to him—with 18 electors in Ohio and six in Iowa—and he probably will take Harry Reid’s Nevada, with six.
That gets him to 277 electors, seven over the top.
Let’s give him Omaha, Warren Buffett’s hometown, and thus one congressional-district victory in Nebraska. That offsets the single elector he lost to a congressional district In Maine, leaving him at 277.
It costs Romney one, dropping him back to 261.
There you have it: More people’s votes would be cast for Romney, but Obama would be heading back to the White House from the Electoral College, where, with 270 votes needed, Obama would have 277 and Romney 261.
In the U.S. Senate, the Democratic caucus lead of 53-47 would lose seats in Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana, but take over Republican seats in Massachusetts and Maine.
The latter is where Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s seat is likely to be won by the two-term independent governor, Angus King. He has endorsed Obama and is likely to caucus with Democrats.
So the Democrats’ usually hapless 53-47 advantage in the Senate would become a tad more hapless at 52-48.
The Republicans are likely to hold their workable membership lead in the U.S. House, but lose maybe four seats.
Party discipline and right-wing theology would pass a bevy of conservative bills in the House that would languish ad infinitum in the U.S. Senate and never get remotely near the minority occupant of the White House.
Despair will be mitigated by assurances on each side that the other side also despairs.
John Brummett’s column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
Email him at jbrummett@arkansasonline.
com. Read his blog at brummett.arkansasonline.com.
Editorial, Pages 81 on 10/21/2012
I predict that President Obama will lose to Mitt Romney because so many of the battleground states will go for Romney because of the horrible economies in their states.
Real Clear Politics as of 11:14 am on 10-19-12 had President Obama with 201 electorial votes locked up and Mitt Romney with 206. I think that President Obama has a good chance of getting Pennsylvania and Michigan to go his way which would bring his total up to 237. Romney should get all the rest which bring his total to 301.
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