Who will win:Obama or Romney?

It is my view that President Obama’s path to victory is to steal Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida or Ohio from Romney. However, it will be a challenge to do so. Virginia only gave Obama 52.6% of the vote in 2008 and a lot of jobs have been lost since 2008. The same is true about Ohio with 51.5% of the vote for Obama in 2008 and Florida with 51%.

With such a bad jobs record it just doesn’t seem possible for Obama to steal any of those three states. His only chance may be Wisconsin which seems to always go Democratic but now with Paul Ryan on the ticket Wisconsin will also probably go Republican.

I just don’t see any other way to get over 262 electorial votes for Obama without these states. I also see problems for him in Pennsylvania too.

Below are the opinions of Dan Mitchell who I highly respect.

Three months ago, I predicted that Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral votes, 27 more than needed.

Back in July, I shifted Virginia to Romney’s column and predicted Obama would still win, but with 284 votes.

Last month, I predicted things were moving even farther in the GOP direction. By moving Colorado to the Republican side, I guessed the outcome would be 275-263 for Obama.

Romney partisans will be disappointed to learn, though, that their candidate has fallen a bit further behind in my new prediction for the 2012 election.

The big change is that I moved Florida to the “leaning Obama” category and those 29 electoral votes more than offset the impact of shifting Iowa and Wisconsin to the “leaning Romney” column.

Why these changes? Well, I suspect that the demagoguery on Social Security and Medicare will hurt in Florida, even though the GOP platform on entitlement reform is that people over age 55 are exempt.

I’m shifting Wisconsin because of Paul Ryan. As for Iowa, I’m going by nothing but gut instinct.

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